theres always a risk of the great ban hammer, the problem for sony is around 30 or 40% of consoles are cfw. most of asia you cant get a ps3 unless its on cfw cos they cant just go and buy game disks.
if sony dropped another mass ban hammer on cfw, there would be hardly anyone playing online no more, normal uses would give up on online play cos there would be hardly anyone connected to play against.
Will there be a ban? No one can say, but if you were around about a year and a half ago when 3.55 CFW became rampant and people could get online via the Charles method.
You would know that Sony definitely kept tabs on all of that. Some people said it was a massive email towards everyone, but that wasn't so. Friends who are legit OFW users never got it. While I on the other hand did, even though I never even played games online.
The only time I went online was to do a quick update of my trophies. Personally, I think 30-40% consoles is a bit of a stretch. Many people decided to update in order to continue playing games online, others decided to buy another PS3 and use it for online play and their old PS3 for homebrew/offline use.
Again, no one can tell you if you will or won't be banned. That's just mere speculation, and it's something you'll have to decide for yourself. We still don't know if all they would do is ban via console ID or through harsher means, such as PSN account.
I think people have gotten careless when it comes to taking precautions..