Fairly certain this was from BLOPS II. Their warning came JUST before the game launched.
A user reported using a flasher and simply changed to OFW to play the game. He was able to get on using OFW, but not CFW - he did not change his mac addy. Another user changed his mac addy using a flasher and went on with OFW and was able to get on the servers.
Basically, it seems like they're able to detect if you have CFW now and they're able to do it game-side. I find it strange that you can create a new PSN account every few days and it seems to bypass it and let you onto BLOPS II, if only temporarily. For example, last Thursday I made a new account and was able to get on for a number of games. When I tried after logging out and turning off my PS3, I was blocked.
Yesterday i made a new account and it didn't work. Today i tried that account again and it worked; my external WAN IP has not changed. I idled at the game type selection screen for about 5 minutes and then was booted back to the MP dashboard with the server error; no longer able to get on. My theory is that Treyarch is, perhaps, scanning your system on the fly and detecting and banning. Why on the fly?
If you stay logged out of PSN while launching the game, then log into PSN through the XMB
while on the MP dashboard (screen with play online, lan party, local, options), it will give you the server error message AS SOON as you're logged into PSN -- before you even take any interaction to try to log into the servers
. This means it's calling home at all times, even on the MP dashboard and is able to detect the CFW immediately and give you 22.0-1 version and server error.
Basically, I'm pretty sure Treyarch is just going to fork over all of the banned clients to Sony and everyone is going to get owned. Sony probably already knows who is using CFW online now and it's just a matter of time before they drop the banhammer for real now.
See this thread on COD.com where they address the server issues post patch, they are very quiet about the cause of the issues, but the first question they ask is if your console is modded: community.callofduty.com/thread/200539411?start=280&tstart=0
I hate to fear monger, but it all adds up. Basically, everyone that tried to get online with BLOPS II probably owned themselves.