Blu-ray's sucess or failure won't be based on the PS3, it is Sony who is just backing Blu-ray with other company, who also believe in Blu-Ray's technologies. Blu-ray shouldn't be a factor as to who will dominate the Next Gen console. Its a given that Blu-ray will be used in the PS3 regardless if Blu-ray flop as the next HD media, as its already there.
Blu ray will fail. At best, another proprietary junk from Sony, that only Sony will use.
So funny..... what is this based on? the fact that HDDVD was out before Blu-Ray? i read this article recently that said how BDROM will fail because HDDVD beat them to the scene - lets back up to Beta vs VHS.... did it matter who beat who to the scene? did it matter about which studio bought into which medium? did it matter about anything other than which was purely BETTER? yes, you're right, it did (BDROM is clearly a better medium as was just stated regarding storage size), the porn industry backed VHS more than they did Beta - 20 years later, the same fight just different players and guess which medium they prefer? guess how big the porn industry has grown in the last 20 years?
so quick to judge you don't bother looking at or quoting the facts to prove your point........
wow. thats interesting insight. I never even considered the porn industry. I mean that's now a multi billion dollar industry. They'd die to be able to market a 50 gb porn disc with over 100+ hours of regular porn! i'd buy one tomorrow! what about HD porn?!? amazing.
What a great argument! Let's get a few facts straight though...First of all, BetaMax is alive and well!! Most people don't know this, but it is the standard media for studio television and portable tv cameras around the world. How do I know, because I used to do some work for a local television studio and the people that run the equipment told me so! Anyway, the biggest reason the BetaMax didn't go mainstream was because after their introduction to the world, Sony got into a year long court battle with Universal Pictures. While they were in court, they pulled the BetaMax off the shelves. This was all over the same thing they are still fighting about now...illegal copies...copyright infringement...
Meanwhile, JVC introduced the VHS (Video Home System) without any of the same resistance and within that year, the prices dropped for VHS players and BetaMax just could not catch up. The BetaMax tape is called "Beta" because of the way it wraps around the video heads (looks kind of like a B) and does not have problems associated with the VHS (which wraps more like a W). The Beta tapes are higher definition and don't wear out the same way a VHS tape does. It doesn't puck/curl, shrink, or snap as easily as a VHS and that is why TV studios use them. The Beta tapes are also very large and hold much more run time. Look it up on the net http://www.hometoys.com/article.php4?displayid=99. As people are saying, I don't think BluRay will fail because of the storage capacity. When those burners and media come down in price, I will also be in line.
I would rather have 10 BluRay discs backed up than 50 DVD's... Many people will think the same way. As for corporations, they already have NAS solutions. BluRay storage will just help make large amounts of data more portable. My $.02
My predictions as of now: The PS3 will trounce the 360 in Japan of course due to their brand and national loyalty which will result in the (IMHO superior) Japanese games being PS3 exclusives. This won't perticularly matter overall because Americans and Eurpoeans care more about the next madden or FIFA than quality games. Thus, PS3 and 360 will be very close to tied in the USA and Europe, with the 360 edging out the PS3 by a small margin.
The wii will outsell both in all regions due to its innate "funness" factor, low price, and ability to get non-gamers to enjoy. Plus, PS3 and 360 are useless without an HDTV, and the vast majority of people still don't have one.
As for HDDVD vs. Blu-Ray, my predictions are hazy. I predict niether will do well for a year or two as people without an HDTV will have no reason to invest in either and people with a PC or high quality DVD player connected to their HDTV can upscale and achieve decent quality with no additional huge expenses. HDDVD is not a good enough format to exist without clever marketing and powerful business deals, however I expect both to occur, coupled with the large amounts of anti-sony sentiment could make it the winner. Blu-Ray's success will depend on its ability to drop in price and fast. If it can be copied and disks are <7$ each and burners are less than 300$ by next christmas, I could see it pulling off a win from people looking for good storage alone.
And as for betamax, Ive had nothing but trouble with it. The players were more than double the price of VCR (more than 1200$ when dad bought them) and had constant problems eating tapes, bad tracking etc. A superior format excecuted in an inferior way is still inferior.
more interesting facts... I was reading a Game Informer rag (Dec 2006, page 26) yesterday and Phil Harrison (Sony's president of worldwide studios) was talking about the Blu-Ray format. In case you did not know, "Blu-ray is not a Sony proprietary format and that was clear...". He goes on to say "We are a partner of a much larger consortium that represents 80 percent of the consumer electronics industry, the world's largest computer companies, Dell and Apple, and also the consortium includes the vast majority of the major Hollywood studio content. Sony Pictures alone represents more than half the films ever made with MGM and Sony Pictures." He went on to say some other interesting things including the need for the disk space to allow for the rich and crisp textures in next gen games.
He also said something about the Minidiscs to the effect that "it is still the number one personal, portable, digital recording format in the world, 15 years after it came out." I know for a fact that the recording industry still uses this medium as well as DAT tapes that you never see anymore. (I know two different people in the music business - local producers/record labels that use them). You have to look beyond the normal consumer and look at the Pro-sumer.
The other thing that no one is talking about is the open source format of the Sony OS. If ANY independent comes out with a game worthy for the masses, Sony will put it on the Playstation Store. There is a possibility for the underground scene to take off with PS3 shareware games. They are already set to release the first one called "Flow" from some college student that will be for sale exclusively on the Playstation Store at first. That will be very kewl. All of these people going to these tech schools to learn the trade will now have the opportunity to showcase their talent. Watch out world!!
definitely some truth to what you are saying there - especially the part about looking beyond the consumer! i don't know much about gaming and consoles (but i do my homework on everything i don't know about - a year ago i knew nothing about torrents, now everyone i know comes to me to set up their computers to download), but i do know about the automotive industry.
let's think about the Hummer H1, and think about how popular it is as a balls-to-the-wall vehicle, we all know how versitle it is, and how if we could afford one (and the gas to go along with it), we would all rock one.... when GM and Hummer announced they were closing down production on the monsterous four seater to the general public, people thought the reason was about gas prices or the waste of money it was to spend over $90K on something like that - the REAL reason they're not selling to the public is because it is more financially advantageous to sell to the GOVERNMENT then to piss away money by making them pretty on the inside for us that would use them to go pick up the 3 kids from soccer practice.
philsmd is right, you have to think beyond the scope of US sometimes and see the view from the other side of the fence to get the big picture!