It will get hacked. The more Sony, Phillips, and the media push how good the copy protection is, the more people that will be out to hack it. The more people that are out trying to hack it, the sooner it will happen. Anything that is engineered by humans can be reverse engineered by humans.
One problem is size. (Size does matter) but look at the current ps2's dvd -9 tech. with all the titles out for the ps2 only something like 6 titles actually use it, and what do you really get. Better graphics, a longer game play portion of the game? No what you get is these long 10 or so minute full motion movies throughout a game. What are we going to get with Blu-Ray, several hour full motion segments? If this is the case, im not really interested. What I foresee as one of the beginning hacks is scraping the full motion video and burning it to regular dvd. Unless the tech. prevents backward compatibility.
Another problem is the initial cost. It's going to be around $1500 dollars for the burner and $40.00 for the 23.?? Gig CD and the 8 layer 200gig CDs will be considerably more. Are you going to spend this much, and go through all the trouble to make a copy of a game that may only cost $50 to $60 bucks to buy? Hell, if you burn one coaster, you have already taken a loss, and would have been better off just buying the original. I know if I would burn a $40 coaster I would punch a hole in the wall, and I would also be out the additional monies and time to fix this.
Yes I know that the cost of new tech is always high when itís first released, and the price goes down when it first becomes a standard. Then it drastically goes down, as there is a demand for the product. There are currently at least two ways of doing the blu-ray media. Phillips way, and Sonyís way maybe more. Until one of these ways becomes a standard, I doubt there will be any substantial price drop. Unless someone comes out with some major product options/improvements over the others, or some major corporation chooses one or the other there won't be a standard. Look back at the 80's when music was first put on CD, it was $100 per CD, and there were several different formats to do this. When the music industry picked one as the only format they were going to use, Sonyís, then the price dropped, customers got interested and the price dropped.
The next question is, who is this product really marketed to? Is Sony really going to create a demand for blu-ray equipment and media based on the PS3? I doubt it, unless games reach or exceed the $100 mark. Yes there will be some major companies that will use this for storage and retrieval of information, but will this be enough to drive the cost down? This only leaves two major markets left that I can think of. The movie industry, and the HDTV recorder units. The movie industry has already said that they don't have a real interest in the Blu-ray, unless it proves to be unhackable. And if it is, what is the movie industry going to do, add an additional $20 or more to the price of each movie they sale. Not to mention everyone will have to buy a new player. The only market that I can think of that would jump on this is the satelite/cable companies with there hdtv recorders. But are these companies going to be willing to ad an additional $1500 price tag to there allready over priced equipment and services? And if they are, will the consumer be willing to pay the price?
Some major film companies are jumping off the hd-dvd bandwagon for blu-ray lately making it a pretty much even race for media supremacy. Another good point is about the pricing early on its going to be too expensive to make it worthwhile; with prices of blu-ray burners and media its going to be tough early on but with price drops later it could definitely get interesting.