With the cell processor becoming a lot smaller, and blu-ray coming down in price, I have a feeling pretty soon we will see a "PS3 slim" which would be far cheaper then it is now.
But besides that after watching wikipedia and console sales since I got my ps3, (Early June) I have seen Wii go from 23 million sales, To 29 million. The Xbox go from 18 or 19 million (Forgot sorry) to the most recent 20 million. And the PS3 go from 11 or 12 million (Again forgot the real number) to the most recent 14 million.
All this in mind and the fact that the 360 is also a year older then the other consoles, it seems that the ps3 may in fact pass the 360 this holiday season.
Why have I always liked Sony? Well I had a N64, but I was also 8 years old and that was a jump from the NES to that so I liked it. But Sony has kept their consoles alive long after they should have died. We seen it happen with the PS1, and we are seeing the same thing happening with the PS2 now.
Granted you can argue that the Xbox was more advanced then the PS2, However the xbox only lasted 3 years, then was dropped like a hot potato.
Another thing I don't like about the current generation of consoles is "ALL" of their prices. I wasn't happy that I paid $150 (USD) For a PS2 slim, yet I had to pay $500 for my PS3. I don't believe the Wii is worth the $250 price tag. And I believe the 360's price drop should have come WAY Sooner.
So in regard to is Sony going to beat Microsoft in this console war, Yes there is a high probability for that. People have come to love and trust Sony over these past 15 years, Enough so that it killed off SEGA.
To be honest, Even though Sony has a $400 price tag for their console. I understand why it is so high. And I believe at the price of the 360 it should have come with a HD dvd player from the start. All in all I would say that the hard core online gamers will get the 360. And the Hardcore "1 player" gamers will get the PS3.