i really don't think this would be so, because sony's ps3 was all new to it's kind. you know what i mean.. so ps4 would be really unique.
I agree with you on that %100. Why would they not put out a system that would be not up to date with technology to rake in the non gamer crowd like Nintendo has. Nintendo already has that fanbase and neither system would really be able to steal that fanbase away with a wanabe style console.
But... They can gain most of it's current fanbase in the future considering Wii players are mostly within the ages of 7-14 and when they get older these new sytems will be launching just on time to pick up that generation that has now matured enough to want the hardware and the goodies that come from a top of the line gaming unit.
On top of all of this Sony could easily launch boat loads of games that use sixaxis type goodies and target the younger generation, when they decide to make a price cut, making the system more affordable for parents.