Pachter: XBox 360 Will Fall to Third Place Thanks to Japan
As part of an absolutely massive 210-page report from Wedbush Morgan Securities on the future of the video game industry, analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that Japan will be the Achilles heel for Microsoft, enabling Sony's PS3 to overtake Xbox 360 on the global market.
Wii, however, will maintain its leadership role until the end (with a little help from a new "Wii HD").
To quote: "We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console's low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years.
We expect Nintendo to sustain this competitive advantage by introducing a high definition version of the Wii, perhaps as early as the end of 2010, in order to convert its large installed base into true 'next generation' households," Pachter said.
"We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015.
Although Microsoft's Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan."
Well i dont think we will see a new xbox until 2012 at the earliest and maybe not before 2014, and i would be surprised if PS3 havent past the 360 by that time. Concidering how PS3 has outsold 360 at a very high price point i think it will catch up with 360 as the price gets lower and blu ray penetrate more of the market. Im guessing by the end of 2010 / early 2011 PS3 will pass 360 in install base.
I think we will see PS3 slim at 299$ this holiday along with GT5, and its gonna ship a sh1tload of units. And i think we will see PS3 being significantly closer to 360 by the end of this year. Next year, with GOW3 PS3 will have a continued momentum and sell well throughout the year, and bluray will also increase significantly both this holiday and through next year. So im predicting good times for sony.
Oh and its also quite funny to see how everyone on seem to think they are better to predict things then Pachter. Guys first of all, Predicting is as far from an exact science as you get, your not supposed to predict the exact numbers, you are supposed to predict estimates. So if Pacther says sony sell 300 000 and MS sell 280 00 and then MS sell 320 000 and Sony sell 290 00, he is actually pretty much dead on, even though the people would claim he was wrong because he predicted wrong platform on top.
I believe Pachter is dead on. First of all, I'm a fan of all the next gen consoles in order I would say. 1. Xbox 360 2. PS3 3. Wii. Although the xbox has done well early on I see it struggling in the long run. The fact that it doesn't support a new DVD format is a huge fumble. The 8.5 Gb discs just won't be enough to make it optimal for future gaming. Sure you can save games to the HDD but it'll just be more and more money spilling into the hardware to keep up with the already equipped PS3. This is a huge selling point for the PS3 let alone the RROD issue the Xbox has.
The PS3 is a monster that hasn't quite been "discovered" yet. Once software makers can unleash the full potential of the PS3 I don't see how the other consoles will be able to keep up.
I do commend microsoft for their run at the console market though because I feel that Sony and Nintendo needed the challenge.