I don't believe windows is stuck copying from Apple, nor do I believe the opposite. The market is a competitive one, in which everything will be copied or replicated to some extent if it is popular, but more importantly, lucrative. Certain aspects of Windows have been copied by Apple, and vice versa. It is just how competition works. You can throw Linux in there and see that it too has copied elements of both of the most successful OS' out there, yet the same is true in reverse.
As for wine, it has advanced a long way, but I myself do at times have trouble using it, especially for new releases. Apple has jumped leaps and bounds to get gaming compatibility on its own OS, but from my experience the hardware is complete garbage for professional gaming on Apple computers. Windows still reigns supreme here.
And as to time, that is the only thing that is certain. As it passes, things will change, but we cannot confuse the future with the present. As it stands, Linux has a long way to go, and it is no where near the acceptability that Apple or Windows are. Perhaps in the future it will be, but you must also look that in the future, both major OS' will also be paying attention to Linux as a competitor, and will do some serious marketing in order to convince the public that it is the best of the three.
I do agree with you only to some extent. I do think Linux has the most potential, but it had that for several years now in my opinion. It is not at the level that most end users will appreciate, and when marketing an OS, end users are the biggest percentage of the market out there.