Can the XBox 360 really Beat the PS3 and Wii in the Console War?

248w ago - The Wii, PS3, and XBox 360 are currently engaged in one of the fiercest and bloodiest console wars ever, with a winner yet to be declared. With all three home consoles still in the running, how can you expect to pick a victor?

This generation of consoles is like no past generation in one important way: it's almost impossible to pick a winner. Sure, the Wii is selling like hotcakes and currently has the lead, but both the Xbox 360 and PS3 are still selling in fair numbers month on month around the world. So how on earth do you choose which console will prove victorious at this (relatively) early stage of proceedings?

Don Reisinger writes The Digital Home, a column on CNet which looks at the state of technology in and around the house. He thinks he can predict the future, and did so in an article titled 'The Xbox 360 should win this console war'. I note he used "should" rather than "will", which is a classic case of hedging your best in case you're wrong.

In the article, Reisinger states the case for the Xbox 360 proving to be the ultimate victor in the current gen console war. This is despite the Wii currently caning the opposition in every single (sales) department, and the Xbox 360 consistently battling for last place with the PS3 every month in the US. Microsoft's console is also in a definite last place in Japan, despite those recent sales surges, and being roundly beaten by the PS3 in Europe.

In spite of all this, Reisinger thinks the Xbox 360 will end this generation as the sales leader. So, is he a deeply deluded Microsoft fanboy, or could he actually be correct?

The recent price cuts are what prompted the timing of Reisinger's article, as he thinks these will be monumentally important in determining the outcome of this generation's console placings. He thinks that the new lower price of the Xbox 360 Arcade pack will enable Wii owners to upgrade to the Xbox 360 as they start wanting more features, better graphics, better games, and online play.

That's not to say that the Wii isn't a true competitor to the Xbox 360 and PS3. In fact, Reisinger agrees with me that the Wii is a true next-gen console thanks to its innovative control system. But, there is a question mark hanging over the Wii's long-term future, and it's a question mark that Reisinger has picked up on and used to batter the Wii about the head with.

What about the PS3 I hear you cry. Reisinger isn't a fan. He thinks the cost is prohibitively expensive, the Blu-ray player is of limited value, and it has nothing going for it, over what the Xbox 360 can offer, to make the extra $100 worthy.

Reisinger concludes by suggesting the Wii will win for the next one to two years, but it's time will then be over. And which console will be there with an attractive price point and a huge library of games to take its place? Why, the Xbox 360 of course.

It's an interesting viewpoint to hold on the current state of the games console market. But, in the same way that the industry analysts such as Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich have no divine powers when it comes to predicting the future, nor does Reisinger. He does at least have a 1 in 3 chance of being right I suppose.